Cijena kWh u 2026: što očekivati od HEP-a i tržišta kWh prices in 2026: what to expect from HEP and the market

Cijene električne energije direktno utječu na isplativost solarnih sustava — što je viša cijena kWh iz mreže, to je kraći period povrata investicije. Ulazimo u 2026. s nekoliko važnih promjena u tarifnoj strukturi HEP-a koje svaki budući solarni vlasnik treba razumjeti.

HEP tarife za kućanstva u 2026.

HERA (Hrvatska energetska regulatorna agencija) odobrila je u prosincu 2025. novu tarifnu strukturu za kućanstva koja stupa na snagu 1. siječnja 2026. Ključne brojke:

• Tarifni model T1 (ravna tarifa): 0,1398 €/kWh bez PDV-a, odnosno 0,1748 €/kWh s PDV-om (25%)
• Tarifni model T2 (više-tarifni): Visoka tarifa (7-21h) 0,1651 €/kWh, niska tarifa (21-7h) 0,0843 €/kWh
• Fiksna naknada: 7,20 €/mj. (trofazni priključak) ili 5,60 €/mj. (jednofazni)
• Naknada za obnovljive izvore (OIE): 0,0028 €/kWh

Ukupna cijena električne energije za prosječno kućanstvo s T1 tarifom iznosi otprilike 0,175-0,185 €/kWh sve-uključeno (s mrežarinom i naknadama).

Kretanje cijena 2020-2026

Radi konteksta: cijena kWh za hrvatska kućanstva rasla je kontinuirano u zadnjih šest godina. U 2020. bila je oko 0,115 €/kWh sve-uključeno; u 2022. dostigla je 0,165 € uz energetsku krizu; a sada smo na 0,175-0,185 €. Godišnji rast je prosječno 7-8% u tom periodu.

Za ROI kalkulacije, konzervativna pretpostavka je rast cijena od 4-5% godišnje do 2030, što je ispod historijskog prosjeka, ali uzima u obzir stabilizirani tržišni kontekst nakon energetske krize.

„Svaki eurocent povećanja cijene kWh skraćuje ROI solarnog sustava za 4-6 mjeseci. Čekanje na još povoljniji trenutak gotovo nikad nije ispravna odluka."

Net-metering u 2026: pravila i ograničenja

Hrvatska primjenjuje model neto mjerenja (net metering) za kućne solarnjake. Logika je jednostavna: višak struje koji inject ate u mrežu umanjuje vašu potrošnju u drugom vremenskom periodu — ali samo u istoj obračunskoj godini. Višak koji ostane na kraju obračunskog perioda isplaćuje se po tržišnoj veleprodajnoj cijeni — ne po maloprodajnoj.

Ova razlika je kritična. Ako vaš sustav proizvede puno više nego što potrošite (npr. ljetni vikend kad niste doma), taj višak bit će isplaćen po 0,05-0,07 €/kWh umjesto 0,175 €. Dakle, predimenzionirani sustav nije dobra investicija u modelu net-meteringa.

Kada se isplati baterija nasuprot net-meteringa

Baterija mijenja ekonomiku. Umjesto da injektirate višak po niskoj tržišnoj cijeni, pohranjujete ga i koristite navečer po maloprodajnoj cijeni. Za tipičnu kuću u Hrvatskoj:

• Bez baterije: ljetna samopotršnja ~40-50%, godišnja ~60-65%
• S baterijom 10 kWh: ljetna samopotrošnja ~70-80%, godišnja ~75-85%

Ekonomski lom-even za bateriju (Powerwall 3 ~9.800 € bruto, ~5.800 € neto s FZOEU subvencijom) iznosi tipično 12-14 godina pri sadašnjim cijenama — što je duže od panela (7-9 god.), ali unutar jamstvenog roka baterije (10 god.). S rastom cijena struje, lom-even baterije pada.

Projekcije do 2030

Analitičari Bloomberg NEF i IRENA projiciraju da će cijene električne energije u jugoistočnoj Europi nastaviti rasti 3-6% godišnje do 2030, vođene fazičnim gašenjem ugljenih postrojenja i rastom troškova CO2 certifikata. Pri pretpostavljenoj godišnjoj stopi rasta od 4%, cijena kWh u 2030. mogla bi dostići 0,21-0,22 €/kWh za hrvatska kućanstva.

Pri toj cijeni, ROI solarnog sustava kupljenog danas pada s prosječnih 8 godina na ispod 6 godina — a svaka 1.000 kWh godišnje uštede vrijedi 210-220 € umjesto sadašnjih 175-185 €. Jednostavno rečeno: solari kupljeni danas bit će isplativiji nego što izgleda pri sadašnjim cijenama.

Electricity prices directly affect the profitability of solar systems — the higher the cost of grid electricity, the shorter the payback period. We enter 2026 with several important changes to HEP's tariff structure that every prospective solar owner needs to understand.

HEP household tariffs in 2026

HERA (Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency) approved a new tariff structure for households in December 2025, effective January 1, 2026. Key figures:

• Tariff model T1 (flat rate): €0.1398/kWh excluding VAT, or €0.1748/kWh including VAT (25%)
• Tariff model T2 (time-of-use): High tariff (7am-9pm) €0.1651/kWh, low tariff (9pm-7am) €0.0843/kWh
• Fixed charge: €7.20/month (three-phase connection) or €5.60/month (single-phase)
• Renewable energy surcharge: €0.0028/kWh

The all-in electricity cost for an average household on T1 tariff is approximately €0.175-0.185/kWh (including network charges and levies).

Price trends 2020-2026

For context: the all-in kWh price for Croatian households has grown continuously over the past six years. In 2020 it was around €0.115/kWh; in 2022 it reached €0.165 during the energy crisis; and now we are at €0.175-0.185. Average annual growth was 7-8% in that period.

For ROI calculations, a conservative assumption is price growth of 4-5% annually to 2030 — below the historical average, but accounting for the stabilised market context after the energy crisis.

"Every eurocent increase in the kWh price shortens the solar system ROI by 4-6 months. Waiting for an even better moment is almost never the right decision."

Net-metering in 2026: rules and limitations

Croatia applies a net metering model for residential solar. The logic is simple: excess electricity you inject into the grid reduces your consumption in another time period — but only within the same billing year. Any excess remaining at the end of the billing period is paid at the wholesale market price — not at retail.

This difference is critical. If your system generates much more than you consume (e.g. a summer weekend when you're away), that excess will be paid at €0.05-0.07/kWh instead of €0.175. So an oversized system is not a good investment under net-metering.

When does a battery pay off vs net-metering

A battery changes the economics. Instead of injecting excess at low wholesale prices, you store it and use it in the evening at retail prices. For a typical Croatian home:

• Without battery: summer self-consumption ~40-50%, annual ~60-65%
• With 10 kWh battery: summer self-consumption ~70-80%, annual ~75-85%

The economic break-even for a battery (Powerwall 3 ~€9,800 gross, ~€5,800 net with FZOEU subsidy) is typically 12-14 years at current prices — longer than panels (7-9 years), but within the battery warranty period (10 years). With rising electricity prices, the battery break-even shortens.

Projections to 2030

Bloomberg NEF and IRENA analysts project that electricity prices in South-East Europe will continue to rise 3-6% annually to 2030, driven by the phased closure of coal plants and rising CO2 certificate costs. At an assumed 4% annual growth rate, the kWh price in 2030 could reach €0.21-0.22/kWh for Croatian households.

At that price, the ROI of a solar system purchased today falls from an average of 8 years to under 6 — and every 1,000 kWh of annual savings is worth €210-220 instead of the current €175-185. Simply put: solar panels bought today will be more profitable than they appear at current prices.